:Product: 20031109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. All regions presently on
the disk are small and simple. New Region 500 (S08W22) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
isolated major storm period occurred from 09/1200-1500 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. A coronal hole
related disturbance is expected to begin by 11 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 093
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  023/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  020/025-020/025-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05