:Product: 20031110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 500 (S09W36)  produced
the first C-class flare observed in the past four days, a C1/Sf at
10/2014 UTC. This region, as well as the other two spotted sunspot
groups on the visible disk, remain relatively small and simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional small C-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
The most disturbed periods were from 10/0900-1500 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm periods. A
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to influence activity
levels for the next few days.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    01/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 095
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  095/100/115
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  020/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  020/030-020/025-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05