:Product: 20031111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 498 (S04W67)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1351 UTC. A slow rise and fall x-ray
flare began at about 11/1523 UTC and reached a maximum of C8 at
11/1615 UTC. This activity appears to have originated from just
behind the east limb near the expected location of old active Region
484 (N03, L=355).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares possible in Region 498 or at the east
limb near old Region 484 (N03, L=355).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. A
single K=7 period was observed at Boulder from 11/0300-0600 UTC.
Solar wind conditions of high speed (700-800 km/s) and low density
(about 2 p/cc) suggest that the expected coronal hole high-speed
stream has arrived.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods.
The coronal hole related disturbance is expected to persist for the
duration of the three-day forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 096
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  100/115/130
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  015/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  030/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  025/025-025/030-025/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/60/60
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10