:Product: 20031112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest x-ray flare of the
past day was a C3 at 12/1819 UTC. Although no optical flare reports
were received, satellite observations suggest that this activity
occurred in Region 498 (S02W80).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The most likely source of an M-flare is at the east
limb near the returning location of old active Region 484 (N03,
L=355).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels. The
coronal hole high-speed stream continues.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods in
response to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 099
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov  115/130/145
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 129
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  039/051
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  025/025-025/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/60/60
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10