:Product: 20031113RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to two M-class flares, both from newly assigned Region 501
(N05E65), which is the return of old Region 484. The first was an
impulsive M1.6 at 0501 UTC. The second was a long duration M1.4 with
maximum at 0929 UTC. The M1.4 was associated with a fast CME (about
1100 km/s) that appeared to erupt off east limb. Limited
observations hindered analysis of the region, but it appears to have
sunspot area of at least 340 millionths.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days, with Region 501 the most likely
source for activity. There is a slight chance for major flare
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels,
with a period of major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar wind
signatures continue to show high speed, low density, high
temperature, with fairly regular oscillations of the z-component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), all of which strongly
suggest the enhanced geomagnetic activity is being driven by a
high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods for
14-15 November as the current disturbance persists. There should be
a slight decline to mostly active on 16 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 102
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  105/110/115
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  020/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  025/030-025/030-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20