:Product: 20031115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 501(N03E48)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 15/1912Z and a number of smaller C and
B-class flares.  The region maintains its beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  New Region 503(N17E09) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity on 16 and 17
November.  Old Region 488(N08, L=290) is expected to return to the
visible disk on 18 November and could have M-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.  At
approximately 0520Z, a shock was observed passing the NASA/ACE
spacecraft.  Solar wind speed increased to 750 km/s and Bz was
southward for a four hour period near -10nT.  Minor to major storm
levels were observed as a result of the shock combined with
continued high speed stream effects.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels.  The effects of
the large coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue.
Minor storm levels are expected, with a chance of isolated major
storm levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    40/40/45
Class X    05/05/10
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 098
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  105/105/125
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  021/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  030/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  025/030-025/030-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           45/45/40
Major-severe storm    35/35/30