:Product: 20031116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 501 (N03E35)
produced a single long duration C-class flare at 1039Z.  This Region
continues to show some minor activity, but so far poses little
threat of major flare.  Last solar rotation's Regions 486 and 488
are now near the limb, and though they show good loop structure and
intensity, are currently less intense than their last appearance.
Analysis during their passage on the back side of the sun indicate
last major eruption on the 13th of November.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 501 is a minor threat to produce M-class flares
throughout the period.  Regions 486 and 488 from the previous
rotation are due to return by 18 November, and have the potential
even now while on the limb to produce M-class flares, with a very
small chance to produce X-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.  A
favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting solar wind speeds in
excess of 750 km/s.  This and interplanetary magnetic field
variations have produced, and will continue to produce, active to
minor storm levels.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels.  The coronal hole
which is currently elevating our magnetic activity will continue to
be a driver through day two, abating by midway through day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    40/50/50
Class X    05/05/10
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 104
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  105/125/150
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  021/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  025/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  025/035-020/030-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           35/35/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           35/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/20