:Product: 20031117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 501 (N04E22)
has generated two M-class flares, an M1 x-ray event at 17/0134Z, and
an M4/1n event at 17/0905Z.  The second event was accompanied by a
Type II radio sweep and a coronal mass ejection measured form the
LASCO coronagraph with an estimated speed of 1085 km/s.  This region
underwent little change over the period and retains a beta-gamma
magnetic structure.  Region 505 (S22E58) was newly numbered to day.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.  Region 501 will continue to
harbor a threat for M-class activity.  Old active Regions 486 and
488 will be returning late in the period, and pose an increased
threat for M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels.  The
favorably positioned coronal hole continued to cause high solar wind
speeds, and the accompanying southward Bz of the interplanetary
magnetic field, have kept the geomagnetic field activity at elevated
levels throughout the period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the
next two days.  The coronal hole will pass from geoeffective
position, and the solar wind speeds should subside.  On day three
(possibly late on day two) a glancing blow from the coronal mass
ejection that occurred on 17 Nov at 0917Z is anticipated, elevating
activity to periods of minor storm levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    50/55/55
Class X    05/10/10
Proton     05/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 121
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  135/155/165
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  032/035
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  028/037
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  012/020-010/010-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/45
Minor storm           40/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/05/10