:Product: 20031118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels again today.
Region 501 (N03E09) produced several M-class flares today.  A pair
of M3/2n flares were the most notable, peak fluxes were at 18/0752Z
and 18/0831Z.  A filament channel to the south and west of this
region erupted following the first flare.  Strong radio bursts, a
Tenflare, a Type IV, and two separate occurrences of Type II radio
sweeps were also associated with this period of activity.  LASCO
imagery depicted a full halo CME as a result of the complex series
of events that appears to have a fairly well connected Earth bound
component to the plasma cloud.  This region has shown some growth
over the past 24 hours and has emerged into a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic complex.  The largest flare of the period was an M4 that
occurred beyond the east limb at 18/1011Z and is thought to be from
old Region 486 which should start to become visible on day one of
the period.  Region 507 (N10E78) was newly numbered today and is
believed to be old Region 488.  Region 506 (S23E72) was also
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Regions 501 and 507 are both capable of
producing major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  The
elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range between predominantly active to minor storm levels
through much of the period.  Minor storm conditions are expected
around the middle of day one due to a glancing blow, from the
partial halo CME that occurred as a result of the M4 flare that was
recorded at 0905Z on the 17 of Nov.  Isolated major to severe storm
conditions are expected beginning around the middle of day two due
to a second transient that is expected as the result of the complex
M-class activity emanating a full halo CME today.  Day three should
see a return to predominantly active conditions with isolated minor
storm possible at this time.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    70/80/80
Class X    15/30/30
Proton     10/15/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 144
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  160/190/220
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 129
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  021/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  025/040-040/050-030/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/55
Minor storm           20/35/25
Major-severe storm    15/25/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/20/40
Minor storm           40/50/35
Major-severe storm    25/30/20