:Product: 20031119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 501 (N03W04)
continues to be active, generating a series of high C-class flares
and an M1.7 at 19/0401Z.  Region 508 (S17E75) formerly old Region
486, was newly numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate.  Regions 505 (S22E41) and 506 (S20E62), along with 501
will continue to be a strong threat for M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  The
coronal hole which had driven high solar wind speeds for the last
few days, has progressed beyond geoeffective range, and activity has
relaxed.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours.
Minor storm levels should occur near the middle of the period, due
to a glancing blow from an interplanetary shock issued by an M4
flare on 17 Nov.  Beginning near midday on day 2, magnetic activity
should jump quickly to active to major storm levels for the
remainder of the period.  A strong shock associated with a
combination of a disappearing solar filament and coronal mass
ejection should impact the Earth's magnetic field on or about 20 Nov
at 1200Z.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    20/25/25
Proton     15/20/20
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 155
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  180/200/210
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 128
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  040/050-030/040-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/35
Minor storm           35/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor storm           30/35/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15