:Product: 20031121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Regions 507 (N09E36) and
508 (S18E47) produced several C-class flares, and Region 501
(N04W32) produced an M5.8/2b at 20/2354 UTC.  A CME was observed on
LASCO associated with the M5 flare, although it was not directed at
the earth.  No significant developments were observed with any
active region on the visible disk.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Regions 501, 507, and 508 are capable of
producing major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field began the period at major storm levels due to
the remaining effects of a CME arrival early on 20 November.
Activity diminished to unsettled levels by the end of the period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit climbed
steadily during the period, and ended the period near the 10 pfu
threshold.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions.   Isolated minor
storm conditions on 22 November may be caused by a CME shock arrival
originating from the M9 flare observed on 20 November.  Isolated
minor storm conditions are also possible on 23 November due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams associated with a coronal
hole moving into geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 177
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  180/190/200
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 130
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  067/117
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  035/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  025/035-015/025-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/10