:Product: 20031122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Regions 501 (N03W44), 507
(N09E22), and 508 (S17E34) all produced C-class flares during the
period.  No significant development was observed in any active
region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 501, 507, and 508 may produce isolated major
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit continues at enhanced levels
just below the 10 pfu threshold.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions on 23 November due to the effects of high speed solar
wind streams associated with a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 176
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov  180/190/190
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 131
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  018/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  010/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  020/020-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/05