:Product: 20031123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Regions 506 (S22E05) and
508 (S17E20) produced several minor C-class flares.  No active
regions exhibited significant development during the period.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 501 (N03W57), 507 (N09E10) and 508 are capable
of producing M-class and isolated X-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  Solar wind
speed gradually increased over the period to 550 km/s.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active to minor storm
conditions are possible on 24 November due to increased solar wind
speeds from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 178
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  180/180/180
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 131
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  014/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  015/020-015/020-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05