:Product: 20031124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several low C-class flares were
observed throughout the period. Region 501 (N03W72) is undergoing
considerable decay as it approaches the west limb, but is still
producing isolated C-class flares. Region 508 (S17E08) was
responsible for most of the low C-class activity. No significant
change was noted in this moderately complex region over the last 24
hours. It maintains a beta-gamma configuration in approximately 450
millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 507 (N09W03) is the
largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but was rather
quiet this period. A weak delta configuration is apparent in this
spot group with over 700 millionths of areal coverage. New Regions
509 (S10E56) and 510 (S22E62) were numbered today. Region 509
produced a C2/Sf flare at 24/1854Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible,
primarily from Regions 501, 507, and 508.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods in the higher latitudes. A well positioned coronal hole is
producing solar wind speeds near 600 km/s, creating a weak
disturbance in the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels through 26 November.
Isolated minor storm levels are also expected, but will be confined
mostly to higher latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected
on 27 November as the current disturbance subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    40/40/30
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 177
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov  175/170/160
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  013/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/40
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05