:Product: 20031126RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Nov 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares were observed in Region 508 (S18W18). This region continues to exhibit some complexity while undergoing slow decay. Region 501 (N04, L=004) has quietly rotated around the west limb. Region 507 (N08W30) maintains considerable size and still appears to contain a weak delta configuration; however, activity in this region remains very low. New Region 513 (N09E71) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Though diminished greatly in size and complexity, Region 508 still maintains potential for an isolated M-class event. An M-class flare is also possible from Region 507. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated, but is in gradual decline. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible at higher latitudes. III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Nov 171 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 007/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 008/010-008/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01