:Product: 20031127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 508 (S19W31) has
produced the most activity, including the largest flare of the
period, a C9.6/Sf at 27/0820 UTC.  No regions exhibited significant
development.  Region 507 (N07W43) continues a slow decay and is now
in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  New Region 514 (S16W46) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  M-class flares remain possible from Region 507 and
Region 508.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  Solar wind speed continues in
gradual decline.  The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active
conditions in higher latitudes on 29-30 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 175
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  170/160/150
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 132
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  008/010-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01