:Product: 20031128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Flare
production was limited to C-class activity throughout the period.
Region 508 (S19W44) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3
x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0913Z.  This region underwent a
slight growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage in the spot
group over the past 24 hours.  Region 507 (N07W56) produced a
single event, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0555Z.  No
significant changes were observed in this group during the period.
Region 510 (S23E11) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 27/2210Z.  This
region has nearly doubled in penumbral coverage since yesterday
while the magnetic field appears to remain a simply structured
complex.  Regions 515 (S02E68) and 516 (S17E70) were newly numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions are possible throughout the period, mainly at
higher latitudes.  A transequatorial coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective by 30 Nov, enhancing the potential for isolated
active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 168
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  170/165/150
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  003/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  004/015-008/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05