:Product: 20031129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 507
(N07W69) was limited to a single C1 x-ray flare today that occurred
at 29/0834Z.  This region continues to show a slow, steady decay,
although a delta magnetic structure is apparent in the trailing edge
of the dominant spot.  Region 508 (S19W57) continued to produce low
level C-class flares today.  The counter clockwise rotation of the
central main cluster of spots ceased during the period while
penumbral growth was observed throughout the later part of the
period.  This region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic
characteristics.  Region 510 (S23W02) produced minor C-class flares
during the period.  This region underwent some decay over the past
24 hours and remains magnetically simply structured.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
that 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Isolated active
conditions are anticipated beginning on 30 Nov and continuing
through 1 Dec due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole speed
stream.  2 Dec should experience a return to predominantly quiet
levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    30/30/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 166
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  160/145/130
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  005/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  010/015-012/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01