:Product: 20031130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 508
(S19W71) produced several low level B and C-class flares during the
period.  This region has undergone very little change over the past
24 hours.  Region 507 (N07W82) was quiescent throughout the period
and has begun to rotate off the west limb.  Region 517 (S07E67) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Ace data
indicated that a weak recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
became geoeffective early in the period.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through 01 Dec.  The
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to wane by 02
Dec.  A return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 03 Dec, with isolated active periods possible at higher
latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M    20/20/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Nov 153
Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec  145/130/130
90 Day Mean        30 Nov 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  012/015-008/010-006/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01