:Product: 20031201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 508 (S19W84)
produced several minor B and C-class flares today.  This region is
exiting the west limb.  Region 510 (S23W29) underwent steady decay
throughout the period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
High latitudes experienced periods of active conditions due to a
weak recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    20/15/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 143
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  135/130/125
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  008/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01