:Product: 20031202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  A number of
X-ray events occurred on the southwest limb between 0757Z and 1330Z.
The most likely source of this activity is Region 508 (S19, L=283)
on the west limb.  A C7 flare occurred at 0948Z and was followed by
a significant long duration X-ray enhancement that peaked at 1145Z.
This long duration enhancement is the likely source of a greater
than 10 MeV proton event.  An M1 flare was also observed at 1308Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  There is a slight chance of a proton producing flare from
Region 508 beyond the west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The long
duration X-ray enhancement produced a greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 1505Z and reached a peak flux of 86 pfu at
1730Z.  Current flux levels are still above threshold level but in a
slow decline.  A polar cap absorption is currently in progress.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 - 04 December.  On
05 December activity may increase to active levels due to a coronal
hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began today is expected to end
on 03 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    10/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 139
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  130/125/120
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  008/010-008/010-012/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           05/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10