:Product: 20031203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  An isolated M1
flare was observed at S19 on the southwest limb at 02/2300Z.  The
majority of activity over the past twenty-four hours has been from
the southwest limb with two active latitudes; S13 and S19.  A C2
flare occurred at S13 on the west limb at 03/2008Z.  Region 517
(S06E34) appears to have entered a decay phase with a decrease in
area coverage down to 210 millionths.  New Region 518 (S22E10) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Isolated moderate level activity is possible from the
southwest limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December at 1505Z is still in
progress.  Up to this point, peak flux levels have reached 86 pfu at
02/1730Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected to produce active conditions on 04-05
December.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     25/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 124
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  120/115/110
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  008/012-015/020-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           01/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/50
Minor storm           05/20/30
Major-severe storm    01/10/20