:Product: 20031204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  A minor C2 flare was
observed at 03/0108Z from Region 510 (S24W69).  Region 517 (S06E20)
remains the largest spot group on the visible disk but is relatively
unchanged from yesterday.  New Region 519 (S08W15) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 517 and 510 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December has ended.  The proton event
began at 02/1505Z, reached a peak flux of 88.9 pfu at 02/1820Z, and
ended at 04/0000Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Coronal hole high speed
stream effects may produce active conditions on 06 - 07 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 116
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  015/020-020/035-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/50/40
Minor storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/15