:Product: 20031205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Activity consisted
of minor C-class flares, the largest a C2 flare at 1019Z from Region
513 (N12W47).  Region 517 (S06E07) is in a gradual decay phase,
decreasing slightly in area size from yesterday.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  At
approximately 0200Z the total field measurement of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) increased to 20 nT.  The Bz
component of the IMF, after an initial northward direction, turned
southward for nearly ten hours, then began a north-south
oscillation.  This signature is similar to that of a co-rotating
interaction region preceding the onset of a high speed stream, but
may include transient effects from a faint halo CME that occurred on
02 December.  The ten hour period of southward Bz, together with
solar wind speed near 475 km/s produced minor storm levels for most
of the day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions.  Isolated periods
of minor storm levels are possible on 06-07 December.  By 08
December, activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 112
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  110/105/105
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  003/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  030/042
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  025/035-020/035-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/05