:Product: 20031206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 510 (S23W96)
produced frequent x-ray flares through the day. Its largest were an
M1 at 1120 UTC and an M2 at 1546 UTC. This region was by far the
most active center, as the other spotted regions were quiet and
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
generally low. There is a declining probability of an M-class flare
as Region 510 rotates farther beyond west limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream's influence diminished throughout the day. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. Enhanced
solar wind may cause periods of minor storming during local
nighttimes. Activity should increase again on 9 December as another
high speed stream is due.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    20/10/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 109
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  021/043
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  020/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  020/020-015/015-025/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/35
Minor storm           15/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/45
Minor storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/10