:Product: 20031207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Very few flares occurred, the
largest being a C3 at 0254 UTC. Just three simple spotted regions
are visible. Today's 10 cm flux (92) is the lowest since 07
November.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A small transient in the
solar wind passed ACE at 1340 UTC, having a short-lived increase in
radial speed plus a more prolonged strengthening of the total field.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
again high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be increasingly more disturbed through the period. A
high speed solar wind stream is anticipated to bring active to minor
storm conditions, beginning near midday on 09 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 092
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  014/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  015/015-025/020-030/035
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/50
Minor storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/40
Minor storm           15/20/40
Major-severe storm    05/10/15