:Product: 20031208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. No flare activity occurred
as the disk is dominated by a large coronal hole.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to major storm levels. The
high speed solar wind, emanating from the mid-disk coronal hole,
increased in radial speed around 0600 UTC. The current radial speed
is near 650 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days. High speed solar wind should buffet the magnetosphere through
December 11.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 094
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  095/095/100
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  007/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  025/035-030/035-025/035
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           35/40/35
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor storm           50/55/50
Major-severe storm    10/10/10