:Product: 20031209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Very little of
significance occurred. There are but two spotted regions visible,
and both are simple and small.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels. Effects of
the high speed stream continue for another day. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels through the period.
This prolonged disturbance is attributable to the enhanced solar
wind from a large coronal hole near mid-disk.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 092
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  095/100/100
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  020/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  030/035-025/035-025/035
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           40/35/35
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           55/50/50
Major-severe storm    10/10/10