:Product: 20031210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity continued very low. Only B-class events
occurred. Two new regions rotated onto the disk. Region 520 (N03E75)
is the apparent return of old Region 501, the producer of 11 M-class
flares last rotation. New Region 521 (S11E82) is a mature group with
penumbra on both the leader and follower spots.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The ongoing high-speed solar wind stream reached
850 km/s (currently near 800 km/s) and remains strong and steady.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 72
hours. This is a continuing response to the high speed solar wind
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 089
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  017/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  030/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  025/035-025/035-020/035
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/50
Minor storm           35/35/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           45/45/50
Major-severe storm    15/15/10