:Product: 20031211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class flares
have occurred.  No significant development was observed from the
active regions on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm conditions.
Solar wind speed remains steady at around 800 km/s.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Activity in the geomagnetic
field should decrease over the next few days as the coronal hole
causing this elevated activity rotates out of geoeffective position.
Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 12-13 December,
with isolated major storming possible.  Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 14 December, with isolated minor storming
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 086
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  024/042
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  030/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  025/040-020/035-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           40/40/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/50
Minor storm           45/40/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/05