:Product: 20031212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  There have been no
significant events observed from the three numbered regions on the
visible solar disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions.  Solar wind speeds averaging above 700 km/s and low
density around 1 p/cc reflect the continued effects of the coronal
hole high-speed stream of the past several days.  The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated
periods of minor storming for 13-14 Dec.  Predominately unsettled
conditions with periods of active levels are expected for 15 Dec as
the coronal hole high speed stream subsides.
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 087
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec  090/095/100
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  027/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  021/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  020/030-015/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           25/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/35
Minor storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10