:Product: 20031214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels.  Only three
regions are on the solar disk.  None have significant potential for
solar activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.  A
coronal hole is progressing beyond geoeffective range.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm until the end of the 15th, falling off to quiet to
unsettled levels for the 16th and 17th.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 092
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05