:Product: 20031215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Only a couple of minor
C-class flares have occurred.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active too minor storm levels.  A
high-speed solar wind stream due to a coronal hole continued to
elevate activity.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at active to minor storm levels through the
remainder of the 15th.  The field should subside to quiet to
unsettled levels for 16 - 18 Dec as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective range.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 101
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  098/100/105
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  025/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  018/020-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05