:Product: 20031216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
through 19 Dec.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 17 - 18 Dec.  By 19
Dec, a high-speed stream should begin to impact the Earth's magnetic
field, elevating the geomagnetic field to active to minor storm
levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 106
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  110/110/115
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  018/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  012/012-010/012-018/018
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05