:Product: 20031217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 525 (N09E56)
produced a C8.6/Sf at 0313Z.  Two new regions were numbered today;
Region 526 (N12W54) and Region 527 (S15W41).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Active regions observed on EIT imagery just beyond the east limb may
increase the level of solar activity beginning 20 December.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  Solar wind speed
observed at ACE continued a gradual decline to below 500 km/s.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit continued
at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  A coronal hole rotating into
geoeffective position on 19 December may produce elevated solar wind
speed, resulting in isolated active to minor storm conditions in the
geomagnetic field on 19-20 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 118
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  010/012-015/018-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/45/45
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/10/10