:Product: 20031218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Several C-class flares
occurred over the period, including a C8.6/Sf at 18/0931Z from
Region 525 (N09E44).  New Region 528 (N08E71) was numbered today,
and it produced several C-class flares including a C5.5 at 18/1209Z.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with possible isolated major flares from Regions 525
and 528.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase from quiet to active levels over the next three
days.  Isolated minor storming is possible due to the arrival of
high speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position beginning 19-20 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Dec 123
Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec  130/135/135
90 Day Mean        18 Dec 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  004/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec-21 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/35
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05