:Product: 20031219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Regions 525 (N10E31) and
528 (N09E62) produced several C-class events during the period,
including a C9.3/Sf at 19/0818Z from Region 528.  No new regions
were numbered today, but SOHO/EIT imagery indicates that more active
regions lie just beyond the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 525
and 528.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.  The greater than 2MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through the period.  Isolated
chance of active to minor storm conditions are possible 20-21
December, as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of high
speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Dec 123
Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec  135/135/140
90 Day Mean        19 Dec 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/40
Minor storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/08