:Product: 20031222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare this period
was a C5/Sf from Region 528 (N09E23). This region was responsible
for several other smaller C-class flares. Mixed polarities are
obvious in the central and trailing portions of this spot group,
where most of the activity is occurring. Isolated low C-class flares
also occurred in Region 530 (S21E50). Region 525 (N08W10) continues
to exhibit some mixed polarities, but remains relatively quiet. New
Region 531 (N01W21) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an M-class flare from Regions 525 and
528.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed
remains elevated, ranging 600 - 650 km/s since late on 21 December.
This high speed stream is associated with a well positioned
transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a brief period
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels
through 23 December. The high speed coronal hole stream that is
creating this disturbance should begin to subside on the 23rd.
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 24 - 25 December.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Dec 138
Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  140/140/135
90 Day Mean        22 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec  015/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  012/015-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec-25 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01