:Product: 20031224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class and
B-class flares were observed in Regions 525 (N09W34), 528 (N09W04),
and 531 (N03W50). Region 528 maintains moderate size with some
magnetic complexity as it transits solar disk center; however,
activity from this region decreased considerably this period. Region
525 contains some weak mixed polarities, but activity in this region
was also quite limited. The remaining active regions were either
stable or in decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. C-class activity is expected in Region 525 and 528.
There is a slight chance for an M-class flare, primarily from Region
528.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
continues to gradually decline, ending the period below 450 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
high today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 139
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  145/145/140
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  005/010-005/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01