:Product: 20031226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. 
Region 528 (N10W31) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 26/1928Z
along with multiple lesser C-class flares that were observed
throughout the period.  This region underwent little change today.
The beta-gamma magnetic complex remains intact.  Region 532 (S11W11)
slightly increased in magnetic complexity and areal spot coverage
today.  A minor B-class flare occurred in this region early in the
period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 528 continues to exhibit the
potential for producing low level M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 137
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  008/010-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01