:Product: 20031227RSGA.txt :Issued: 2003 Dec 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2003 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. Region 528 (N10W44) underwent little change today and was quiescent throughout the period. No significant activity was reported from the active regions today. No new regions were numbered this period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 528 remains capable of producing minor M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Updated SOHO/LASCO imagery depicted a weak partial halo CME that was believed to be from the long duration C5/Sf flare from 25 December. A weak transient was observed passing the ACE spacecraft at approximately 27/0900Z resulting in unsettled conditions. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions possible throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Dec 127 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 010/012-008/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 COMMENTS: Observed Pentiction 10.7 cm Est. based on morning reading due to excessive noon value.