:Product: 20031228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. 
Region 528 (N10W57) showed some decrease in areal coverage to the
spot cluster.  This region continues to exhibit weak beta-gamma
characteristics.  Region 532 (S11W38) was quiescent throughout the
period and appears to be in a decay phase.  New Region 533 (N16E54)
was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  There is a very slight chance of an
isolated low level M-class flare due to the magnetic complexity of
Region 528.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated active
conditions may be experienced late on 31 December due to the onset
of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Dec 119
Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec  115/115/105
90 Day Mean        28 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  008/010-005/010-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05