:Product: 20031229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at very low levels.  Region 525 
(N09, L=292) produced a B8.9 flare at 1354Z on the west limb. 
Region 528 (N08W69) continues to decay in area coverage and has
simplified to a beta magnetic configuration.  A 24-degree filament
lifted off near S28E53 at 28/2240Z.  A faint non-Earth directed CME
was associated with the disappearing filament.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 528 has the potential for C-class
activity and a slight chance of producing M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Isolated active
conditions are possible on 31 December and 01 January due to a small
coronal hole rotating into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M    15/10/05
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Dec 115
Predicted   30 Dec-01 Jan  110/100/095
90 Day Mean        29 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  005/010-010/015-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/40
Minor storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/15