:Product: 20031230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 528 (N10W78)
produced a C1 flare at 1940Z near the west limb.  Two small solar
filaments lifted off the visible disk during the past twenty-four
hours; an eight degree filament disappeared near N23E01 and a ten
degree filament disappeared near S21W04.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 528 has the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  An
isolated period of unsettled activity was observed.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Isolated active periods
are possible on 01 January due to a coronal hole high speed stream
rotating into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    10/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 108
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  100/095/085
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  010/015-020/030-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/25
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/15/05