:Product: 20031231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2003 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2003
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  A very
impulsive M1 flare occurred at 31/1824Z from Region 528 (N09W93) on
the west limb.  NOAA SXI imagery suggests additional active regions
just beyond the east limb which will be rotating into view soon.  In
addition, there has been a slight increase in background X-ray
levels over the past twenty four hours most likely due to the
increased activity on the east limb.  New Region 534 (S05E40) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be a low
levels with at slight chance of moderate activity.  Active regions
beyond the east limb are expected to have C-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  A coronal
hole high speed stream increased solar wind speed to 600 km/s and
produced minor storm levels.  The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field exhibited oscillations between +5 and -10 nT.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels.  The high speed stream
is expected to produce active levels on 01 January.  Activity should
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 02 - 03 January.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 106
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  100/095/095
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  017/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  020/030-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    00/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    15/05/01