:Product: 20040102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 536 (S11E63) has
produced several C-class flares during the last twenty-four hours. 
This region continues to grow and is currently 770 millionths of
white light coverage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 03 January.  Active to minor
storm conditions are expected for 04-05 January with activity due to
a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 117
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 135
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  012/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  010/015-025/030-020/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/45/45
Minor storm           10/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/15/15