:Product: 20040103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 536 (S12E51)
continues to be the largest of the three spotted regions on the
visible solar disk.  This region now exceeds 900 millionths of white
light area.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 536 could produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels.  Solar
wind velocity increased to over 600 km/s with a southward Bz of -5
to -10 nt during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately active to minor storm conditions for
04-06 January due to the effects from a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 116
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  120/125/125
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  025/030-020/030-025/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10