:Product: 20040104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 536 (S10E38) has
produced several low C-class flares.  The region has indicated some
weak polarity intermixing in the past twenty-four hours but remains
a beta magnetic configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 536.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with periods of minor storm
conditions possible for 05-07 January.  This is due to the solar
wind high speed stream continuing through the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 119
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan  125/125/120
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  011/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  025/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  020/025-020/025-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10