:Product: 20040105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  The GOES x-ray
imager observed a long duration M6 flare from Region 536 (S11E25) at
05/0345 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep.  Again this
region has exceeded 900 millionths of white light area coverage and
has developed a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 536 remains capable of producing an M-class
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active levels with periods of minor
storm conditions for 06-08 January.  This is due to the continued
influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.  Additionally,
isolated periods of major storm conditions are possible on 07-08
January as a result of the M6 event at 05/0345 UTC.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 123
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan  125/120/120
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 136
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  013/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  020/025-025/030-025/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/45/45
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10