:Product: 20040106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was high. Newly assigned Region 537
(N04E76) produced an M5 x-ray event at 0629 UTC. A CME was
associated with this event, but it appears to be centered over this
east limb region and has very little, if any, earthward directed
component. Region 537 produced additional small flares during the
past 24 hours. Region 536 (S10E12) continues to dominate the disk in
size and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta), but was remarkably
quiet and stable and has been mostly unchanged during the past 24
hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for 7-9 January, with Region 536 and Region
537 being the main sources for energetic events. There is a slight
chance for another, isolated major flare event from either of these
regions.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. A high-speed solar wind stream continues to be
observed at the ACE spacecraft. Active conditions predominated from
the beginning of the day through about 0900 UTC, after which Bz
turned weakly northwards and the geomagnetic field declined to quiet
to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with periods of minor storm conditions for 7
and 8 January. In addition to persistent effects from the high speed
wind stream, an enhancement to activity levels is possible beginning
late on the 7th or early on the 8th in response to the CME
associated with the M6 flare of 5 January. Conditions should subside
to mostly active late on 8 January and remain mostly active on 9
January.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 117
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  120/120/125
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 137
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  025/030-025/030-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           35/35/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/20